| Kingsbarns Community Council - General
Information Future of Kingsbarns - University Report - Part 2 back to Report Contents 10. Analysis 10.1 Introduction Once the data collection process had been completed as described in section 8.3 above, the key drivers of change in Kingsbarns had to be identified. This process took place during a two-day workshop in which a matrix was created, clustering key drivers according to their certainty and importance. Consequently, those key drivers that were identified as highly important and uncertain shaped the scenarios presented in sections 11 and 12 of this report. 10.2 The Matrix In order to be able to build plausible scenarios, a segmentation of the variety of key drivers underlying the future of Kingsbarns was necessary (see section 8.5 above). By clustering the drivers according to their certainty and importance, it is possible conduct such a segmentation process. Therefore, figure 9.1 consists of two dimensions, namely: the degree of uncertainty, and the degree importance of the relevant variable for the village. All identified key drivers are then placed within the matrix on the basis of to these two characteristics. Special attention is given to the top corners. Those elements appearing in the top-right corner of the matrix are most significant in the scenario construction process due their high importance and the high degree of uncertainty. 10.3 Identification of Key Drivers Extensive research was undertaken prior to the workshop and was compiled in the Workbook. The key drivers were identified from the information gathered in the Workbook. However, in order to develop plausible scenarios, the challenge was now to identify only the most important drivers of the village. For Kingsbarns, the top 10 key drivers were identified as follows, a detailed explanation and justification concerning the position within the matrix is given immediately afterwards: 10.4 Explanation of Key Drivers Vision The most significant and important key driver of Kingsbarns is the vision that residents of Kingsbarns have about their community. Their ambitions and initiative certainly impact the fate of the village and the quality of life for the people living there. However, due to fact that visions of people can differ substantially they are considered as highly uncertain. For this reason, “community vision’s” position within the matrix is the top-right corner (indicating high importance and high uncertainty). Development The term “development” refers not only to the level of expansion the village undertakes, but also how existing facilities are renewed or maintained. For example, the level of development of community services may represent a significant incentive for people to move to Kingsbarns. Consequently, development is a major driver of the future of the village. Therefore, development is highly important. Since development is highly uncertain (due to community vision, conservation and planning legislation and issues relating to attracting inward investment), development is positioned in the top-right corner of the matrix. Economic Forces Economic forces characterise the extent of local business activity. This determines and reflects the economic viability of the community. Clearly, economic forces have a major impact on the prosperity of the village since they are not only a high incentive for new inhabitants but also determine the level of employment and influence the community’s age structure. Areas offering high levels of employment prospects typically attract a youn workforce. Therefore, economic forces are highly important. However, due to the nature of local businesses and Fife’s structural problems economic forces are also uncertain. Demographics Demographics not only refer to population figures, but also, inter alia, to residents’ age structure. Obviously, demographics is a major driver for the future development of Kingsbarns. A favourable age structure and the level of population are crucial for the village. Therefore, demographics is very important. However, demographics also depend on the incentives (e.g. the services etc.) offered by a village and its environment. These factors are heavily influenced by general demographic trends and development in Fife and Scotland. The predictability of demographic trends in these areas is good. Consequently, demographic development tendencies are certain (top-left corner). Services The services offered within a village effect quality of life and play an important role for elderly people and families. Demographic segments with limited mobility typically depend extensively upon a range of local services (e.g. banking, school, shop etc.). As a result, these services are important to Kingsbarns given its demographic structure. However, some parts of these basic services might be substituted in the future by new technologies (e.g. e-banking, e-learning). Since the future of some of the services (i.e. the post office, the pub and the school) are, due their dependence on the population and age structure, only relatively predictable overall, services are placed in the down-left corner of the matrix. Housing The availability of housing, especially affordable housing, has an impact on the ability to attract young families, thus potentially contributing to a reversal of current demographic trends. However, the importance of this force is limited by the current capacity of housing in Kingsbarns and possibilities for the village’s physical expansion in the future. Consequently, the availability of housing depends on the development issue as detailed in section 10.4(b) above. This determines and justifies housing’s position within the matrix, namely important and uncertain (down-right corner). Income Income levels in Kingsbarns affect people’s willingness and ability to purchase property and services, thus impacting on the economic sustainability of the village. The lower importance of income in the matrix is borne out of its dependence on demographics and economic forces (as detailed above). A decreasing population and workforce decreases the communities gross income is reflect generally in Kingsbarns’ economic prosperity. Consequently, the importance of income is medium to low, the centre position on the certainty axes positively influenced by the certainty of demographics and negatively influenced by the uncertainty of the economic forces. Technology For the purposes of this Report, “technology” refers to the influence that new communication and mobility developments may have on the village. The internet with its possible future ramifications for provision of service industries from remote locations together with improvements in mobility for elderly people will positively impact rural villages such as Kingsbarns. Whilst virtual mobility in terms of e-shopping and e-banking will in our view positively change the future of the village, we doubt that significant e-businesses will develop within Kingsbarns itself. Due to the nature of technological development technology is an uncertain driver and as mentioned above with medium-low importance for Kingsbarns. Legislation For the purposes of this Report, “legislation” refers to that body of law affecting development within Kingsbarns. The relatively low position of importance of this legislation reflects our belief that primary impetuses for development are not entirely dependant on the Conservation Act (as that term is defined in section 11.4 ). Moreover, legislative change is generally a long-term process. It is also uncertain in nature due to the significant political, judicial and economic factors involved in its construction and implementation. This together with relatively low importance results in a down-right position within the matrix. Tax Tax, especially council tax, influences the buying patterns of potential new house owners, an issue that is particularly important in a village with holiday homes, such as Kingsbarns. Notwithstanding, this affect is expected to be marginal. This results, mainly out of the relatively high income of second home owners and thus justifies the low importance of this driver. Nevertheless, tax regulations can change very quickly and therefore explain the position in the down-right corner. Future of Kingsbarns - University Report - Part 2 back to Report Contents up to Top 11. Scenario One – Quicksand The following scenario, “Quicksand”, is the “low road” or less attractive scenario for Kingsbarns. We begin by looking into the future to Kingsbarns in the year 2020 from the eyes of a resident in section 11.1 below. We then reveal the path to this outcome over the time between now and then between sections 11.2 and 11.9 . 11.1 Kingsbarns in 2020 – Quicksand Storyteller: A 63-year-old retired schoolteacher “Kingsbarns is still a beautiful village, but for those of us who have lived here most of our lives, it’s impossible not to notice how it has changed over the last 20 years. “Last time my son visited, he sadly commented that the village had “fallen into decay”. A few years back there was frequent discussion about development in the village, but it never materialised. The locals seemed reluctant about changes taking place, and Kingsbarns being a conservation village complicated matters further. As far as I gathered, there were just too many obstacles and too many approvals needed in order to go ahead with the plans. “My son and his family decided to move to Dundee 12 years ago. They wanted a bigger house when my youngest grandchild was born, but – as for most young families – high interest rates and lack of affordable housing meant it was impossible for them to find something reasonable in Kingsbarns. These days many people are struggling to find or maintain a job, but it seems less difficult to get some decent work in a bigger city. Young people looking for local employment here in Kingsbarns might be lucky to get a job at the golf course, but it’s largely seasonal. Most of the remaining population in the village are retired, and those who work commute to and from nearby cities, such as St Andrews. “My grandchildren’s education was also an issue when they decided to move. My own children had a wonderful time at Kingsbarns Primary School, but now there is only one teacher employed at the school. Although the number of pupils is decreasing too, my son and his wife do not believe the school can any longer provide the quality and individual attention that it used to. They are worried the school will close down and that the children’s education is interrupted. Life out of school holds little excitement for the children in the village. The small kids’ playground has been neglected for years and the older children’s playing field, proposed years ago, remains to be developed. “I would have liked to visit my family regularly, but prefer not to drive. The roads here in Fife are really in need of improvement, and there’s just too much traffic congestion. Buses do run, but not as frequently as they used to. If my husband and I venture out of the village, we usually go to St Andrews. Since the post office and banking service in Kingsbarns shut down 15 years ago, we go there to withdraw cash and take care of our mail. Whilst there, we enjoy a stroll around the many shops, and – money permitting – we sometimes treat ourselves to a nice meal at one of the restaurants there. “My husband used to enjoy the odd beer at the local pub in Kingsbarns, but it has yet again been shut down. Having had a number of owners over the last few years, it never became particularly popular with the locals, and the bed & breakfast remained unsuccessful in attracting overnight visitors. It seems like Scottish and international tourists prefer to stay in St Andrews. Apart from the golf course, there isn’t really anything for them to see or do in Kingsbarns, so I’m not surprised they only drive through the village. “Life in the Kingsbarns has always been quiet. These days, however, it feels too quiet. I miss watching new generations grow up, enriching the village spirit with new and fresh ideas. My greatest disappointment is that the community feel is almost gone. These days, interaction among us residents is minimal. Most of us tend to stay at home much of the time and only meet during church service or when popping into the local shop for a newspaper. I only have faint memories of the thriving village I moved to when settling down 40 years ago.” 11.2 Assumptions The assumption of this scenario is that the village does not adopt a proactive plan to counter the impending difficulties created by its ageing population and vulnerable services. 11.3 Population After a short recovery during the 1990s, Kingsbarns’ population continues to decline over the first 20 years of the 21st century. This continued decline generally reflects the long term local population trend (that is, 24% decline over 50 years). The population decline coincides with regional trends (both in Fife and in Scotland generally - especially due to declining birth rates) and with lower incentives (see sections 11.6 and 11.7(b)(i) ) for people to move to Kingsbarns. Additionally, Scotland’s mean age continues to rise. Over the past 20 years the number of persons aged over 75 years as a proportion of the total population increased by 30% and the number of persons aged between 30-60 years increased on average by 16%. This trend is even more significant for Kingsbarns where the mean age is already above the national average. Consequently, the local problem will be even more acute. The age structure is also negatively influenced by the lack of affordable housing and job opportunities for young families as well as the large proportion of holiday homes where many of the owners reside for only two to four weeks a year. The level of unemployment in Fife over the next 20 years continues to stay above the Scottish average. This reflects the absence of industry and the decline in agriculture as a regional economic mainstay. Although the economic implications of this decline are cushioned by a declining work force, local youths permanently leave Fife to seek employment in other areas of the country. 11.4 Regulatory Impediment to Development As Kingsbarns is a Conservation Area for the purposes of the Planning (Listed Buildings and Conservation Areas) (Scotland) Act 1997 (the Conservation Act), the Fife Council must ensure that all relevant development preserves and enhances the character and appearance of [the] area (the Conservation Objectives). Under the Conservation Act, in exercising any of its powers under relevant law (in particular certain planning Acts), the Council must bear these objectives in mind. In other words, all new developments in Kingsbarns must be consistent with the Conservation Objectives. Demolition and Alteration Any proposed development in Kingsbarns which would involve demolition of any building or any part of a building will require approval from Fife Council or the Secretary of State. Consequently, development of such a site is a two stage process. First, authorisation must be obtained for demolition. Second, planning approval must be granted for any replacement building on the subject land. Both of these authorisations must be given in light of the Conservation Objectives. This amounts to a more expensive and protracted process than in other communities. Consequently, due to its ageing population and declining mean real income, Kingsbarns residents neither alter nor demolish parts of their houses. This leads to the gradual degradation of some local structures. Compensation will only be payable under the Conservation Act in respect of a prohibition against such an alteration or demolition where such prohibition prevents the interested party from enjoying the relevant building for its intended purpose. Prima facie, where a resident has been living in the relevant structure this would seem a difficult threshold to pass. Extensions Building owners in the Conservation Area also require authorisation for any extension to any building in the Conservation Area. The authorisation process is the same as that for alterations and demolitions. Consequently, as extensions must be made in a many consistent with the existing character of the town, residents are restricted to constructing in styles generally more expensive than would otherwise be the case, Consequently, houses are improved less frequently than in other residential areas. 11.5 Housing 0-5 years Within the next five years and due to a change in tax legislation, second-homes are subject to the same amount of taxes as permanent resident housing. As a result, this will decrease the incentive to have holiday homes in Kingsbarns. Thus, the percentage of holiday homeowners in Kingsbarns will decrease slightly. 5-10 years However, beside some free but very limited capacity in form of former holiday homes, the supply of housing has not changed over the past decade. Although Kingsbarns rural attractiveness is well known, it continues to be primarily a pensioners’ village with a lack of affordable housing for younger families. The provisions of the Conservation Act also make developers/investors very cautious and they stay out of Kingsbarns. Further, there is no shift in demand from students in St Andrews to move to Kingsbarns since the distance and the missing infrastructure are prohibitive. 10-20 years The European single currency is introduced in Britain around 2010. Consequently, the Pound devalues and UK interest rates rise (up to approximately 4 percent). As a result, there arise serious difficulties such as decreasing buying power, especially for first time buyers, in the UK housing market. UK mortgage debt per capita is much greater than in the euro-zone. Additionally, since most UK mortgages are on a variable interest rate, whereas in the EU most are on long term fixed rates, the UK housing market is much more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. Thus, housing affordability continues to be low, especially for young families. This exacerbates the difficult housing situation in Kingsbarns. A positive effect of the introduction of the Euro to the United Kingdom arising out of the devaluation of the Pound is increased foreign investment. However, Kingsbarns still fails to attract these foreign investors as a result of development restrictions and infrastructure problems. 11.6 Infrastructure 0-5 years Whilst the majority of the adult population in Kingsbarns possess their own cars, the village’s increasingly ageing population imply fewer drivers in the future, and possibly, a greater need for public transport (however, the ability and desire to travel may diminish accordingly). Kingsbarns retains its accessibility to and from major towns (and airports) such as Glasgow, Edinburgh and Dundee, predominantly by private car, but also by regular bus/coach and railway services. Current services to the nearby towns of St Andrews and Crail are upheld on a frequent basis, thus ensuring the mobility of Kingsbarns’ residents without automobiles. However, the recent discontinuance of Stagecoach’s service to Leuchars implies a cutback in the public transportation services on offer, rather than an expansion. 5-10 years Fife’s transport infrastructure has for several years experienced great difficulty coping with the steady rise in car traffic, both that of “everyday” travellers, as well as those travelling within the region for leisure purposes (85% of current tourists/day-trippers are car-borne). Unless an extensive road development plan materialises (to our knowledge, no such plan currently exists), congestion and poor road conditions will affect the attractiveness of travelling within the region. Consequently, Kingsbarns’ proximity to the district’s main town, St Andrews, as well as its location along the popular Fife Coastal Route, are likely to have little commercial impact on the village. However, transport infrastructure improvements would have positive implications for Kingsbarns. Although Fife’s considerable road infrastructure problems encourage extended provision and usage of public transportation services, the number and frequency of the services to and from Kingsbarns is negatively effected by a further decrease in the local population (as detailed above). Consequently, the number of options available for public transport users to travel to nearby towns and cities are increasingly limited. 10-20 years Road problems intensify further as a result of traffic in and around Fife (despite real decreases in Kingsbarns’ own population). The provision of transportation services in Kingsbarns decreases further as a result of fewer users (less mobility among ageing population). This compounds the necessity of car ownership if one wishes to travel out of the village. 11.7 Community Services 0-5 years Post Office and Banking: Termination of services The post office in Kingsbarns currently operates as an agency from the local general store. The same couple own the shop and the post office agency. Their licence with Royal Mail is reviewed every several years. The current agreement will continue for another two or three years. However, the limited demand for local postal services, the trend to undertake this business in nearby towns (predominantly St Andrews), as well as announced replacement plans (tea room or a memorial garden for seniors), suggest that Royal Mail exercises its option to review the relevant Agency Agreement at that time. Consequently, Kingsbarns loses its local postal services (and with it, local savings bank services) in 2005/6. The loss of local savings bank services may have certain implications for commercial investment in Kingsbarns. Local residents are forced to travel to other towns to do their banking. Consequently, the likelihood of those residents spending their funds in those other places rather than Kingsbarns will also increase. This, in turn, lessens the attractiveness of starting new local businesses. Public House: Re-opens and shuts down The local pub is re-opened in 2004, and includes five rooms for overnight stays. Arguably, the success of running a pub in Kingsbarns depends greatly on the landlord/landlady’s ability to interact with, and attract, locals. There is, however, uncertainty with regards to the need or want for a pub among the ageing local population, as well as to the significance of the pub’s role as a social meeting place. Rather, the general community opinion seems to be that a pub is “a nice thing” to have in the village, rather than something improving most residents’ quality of life. Although there are few tourist accommodation units on offer in Kingsbarns, the village’s lack of involvement in tourism facilities raises questions as regards the bed & breakfast’s future utilisation of bed nights. This, together with the lack of demand or interest among the local population, and the irregularity and debatable success associated with the previous running of the establishment, result in the pub and bed & breakfast either closing-down or changing hands within five years. 5-10 years School: Fewer pupils, fewer teachers The continuing demographic trends in Kingsbarns, the increase in housing prices and the subsequent lack of success in attracting younger families to settle down in the village, makes it increasingly difficult for Kingsbarns Primary School to maintain its current number of pupils. Inevitably, the number of pupils drops to 19 or less. Consequently, one of the two teachers is forced to leave his/her position. From having two teachers between 23 pupils (2003), and thus, ensuring a considerable amount of individual attention, the quality of the local education is critically effected. For families with young children, the environment and lower quality of teaching at the local school is of great concern. This is also a fundamental issue for those families contemplating moving to Kingsbarns. The small classes and individual attention offered at Kingsbarns Primary School has prompted some families in other towns to send their children there, but in order to maintain (or increase) its number of pupils, the school requires attendance of local children. Losing a teacher significantly reduces the school’s attractiveness and contributes to the on-going difficulties in attracting younger people to the village. With fewer young children growing up in the village, the usage of the existing playground also decreases. Maintenance and improvements of the playground subsequently fall by the wayside. Recreational facilities for older children remain few and a proposed playing field is not developed. 10-20 years Shop: Under threat, but survives Today, the majority of the shops’ customers are comprised of the “regulars” who come in for their daily “papers and sweets”. Without rejuvenation of the village population, this will not guarantee survival of the business (especially in light of the observations made in relation to the Post Office agency and local banking services above). Only by diversifying its sources of income, such as providing “starter packages” for rental cottages or supplying goods to the golf club (as done in modest quantities today), will the business remain viable. Moreover, as the current owners approach retirement age, the business has difficulty attracting a purchaser. Church and Community Centre: Survival The community is almost devoid of services, but the church and community centre will remain. 11.8 Tourism 0-5 years Golf course: Only attraction, but limited significance Kingsbarns Golf Course is one of the top golf courses in the UK. The golf course is significant in terms of local employment, but golf tourists stay elsewhere (predominantly St Andrews) and do not use any other services or amenities in the village (nor are they developed). Apart from certain trade-offs (such as the local shop supplying goods to the course’s adjacent golf club), limited seasonal employment remains Kingsbarns’ only significant economic impact from the golf course. There is little or no co-ordination of efforts between the out-of-town management of Kingsbarns Golf Course and the local community in order to look for ways that the village can profit more from the affluent golfers. Lack of tourism incentive There continues to be little incentive to promote and develop tourism in Kingsbarns. Tourist accommodation is only offered at Cambo Arms Hotel and the new bed & breakfast (the pub). There is little or no development in order to attract tourists or day visitors (such as shops, galleries, museums, events/fairs, pubs and restaurants). No involvement in marketing activities through area tourist board Apart from being incorporated in certain themed brochures (such as “gardens” and “coastal paths”), Kingsbarns is not involved in any of the many marketing activities and campaigns of the Kingdom of Fife Tourist Board. 10-20 years Golf Course: Still important – but increased competition Kingsbarns Golf Course continues to be the only source of tourism income in the village. However, this income remains filtered through limited local employment rather than coming predominantly from tourists spending in the local community. Changing tourism trends and travel patterns, as well as recent years’ explosion in golf course development regionally, nationally and internationally, create a competitive environment for any golf course provider. Travellers are increasingly selective and are looking for a “Total Experience” rather than merely a “Destination”. Although golf is a sport of long history, and one especially significant to Scotland and St Andrews, the extent of its popularity worldwide has increased significantly in recent years. It is not unlikely that other sports and activities may emerge, implying diversification of the current golf market and competition with it. Although a further increase in golf tourism seems likely for years to come, the demand may ultimately reach a point of saturation and the competition among golf courses will become even fiercer, making profits suffer. 11.9 Quicksand Conclusion The quicksand motif symbolizes two characteristics. Firstly, quicksand can be – as Kingsbarns – an unspoiled and ravishingly beautiful spot. Secondly, once in the quicksand, an irreversible process starts. The latter happens to the villagers in the Quicksand Scenario. While doing nothing, they enter the quicksand that slowly, but steadily, results in the degeneration of the village. With a lack of affordable housing and the loss of community services, an overall population decrease is fortified, as seen in other villages in the UK and Overseas . The village, therefore, is unable to attract young families and the age structure remains unfavourable. Moreover, the village remains unsuccessful in utilizing the tourism activity in the region, especially from the golf course. This shortfall is worsened by the poor condition of the infrastructure, and together with the declining population, ultimately results in reduction of public transport. Macro trends in Scotland, like the introduction of the Euro, unfavourably effect the situation in Kingsbarns. The village, therefore, steadily gets roped into the vicious cycle, becoming a ghost town. Future of Kingsbarns - University Report - Part 2 back to Report Contents up to Top 12. Scenario Two – Phoenix The following scenario, “Phoenix”, is the “high road” or more attractive scenario for Kingsbarns. We begin by looking into the future to Kingsbarns in the year 2020 from the eyes of two residents in section 12.1 below. We then reveal the path to this outcome over the time between now and then between sections 12.2 and 12.9 . 12.1 Phoenix Scenario Storyteller: A 45-year-old married homeowner with two grown children “We moved to Kingsbarns from Crail fifteen years ago when my husband got a job as a year round greens keeper at the golf course. I wanted to move to the town because our children had just reached primary school age and I wanted them to have the experience of a small school where they received a lot of individual attention. When we first came, we rented a flat and were pleasantly surprised when we received a concession rate because the owner wanted families to help strengthen the school. "My husband has always been good around the house, and since we arrived, he has supplemented our income by taking on handy-man jobs in the town. While he is by no means a guild master, he has become the de facto joiner, plumber and electrician for the town. When the children finished primary school, I thought it would be a good time to get a master’s at St Andrews and start my career again. This also let me drive my children to and from Madras College while I went to classes myself. "Kingsbarns has been a great blessing for us. Since we arrived, more housing has grown up in the area and several new families have come in, which meant my children had friends who lived in the village. When my children were in school, I was very involved, especially in setting up plays and music recitals to bring the larger community together around the school. Over the years, these have become more frequent and well attended. "Now that the children have left the nest and I am working more, my involvement in the town has changed a bit: Several years ago I started going to the Thursday tea morning at the church along with several other “new” arrivals. While we aren’t regular churchgoers, it’s nice to meet with more and varied people in the community, especially the long-term residents who have such a deep love for this place. As I look down the road towards my own retirement, like the long-term residents, I can’t imagine living anywhere but here. Storyteller: A 27-year-old single Ph.D. student at The University of St. Andrews “I grew up on the outskirts of Glasgow. It was all right but the hustle and bustle of busy city life just wasn’t for me. When I attended St. Andrews for my Masters I was amazed at the lifestyle outside the big city; I had never really lived anywhere else. The peace of the place and the friendliness of the people made me fall in love with life outside a city. “When I started my Ph.D. at St. Andrews, I decided to move out of town to be more independent and get away from the student lifestyle and focus on research. I wanted to experience life in a village. My friend Jane recommended a place called Kingsbarns to me as she lived there herself. As soon as I drove in past the Cambo Arms, I knew Kingsbarns was for me. The size of the village suited me perfectly. I rented a flat and have lived there ever since. “I am told that the village has grown over the past few years, new housing, amenities and shops create a lifestyle that the villagers say they didn’t have twenty years ago. The shop in the centre of the village and the stores around the village give me the choice not to go to St. Andrews if I do not want to for necessities, though, if I want to, the commute is an easy one. “Even though the town is bigger now than it was, it still has that “community feel” to me. Everyone here knows my name and we chat as I walk down the street. That would have never happened in Glasgow! It isn’t only the people though; there are community events for the whole village that I attend regularly. These really give Kingsbarns that “homey” feel. It is always nice to venture down to the Cambo Arms to have a pint, read, and chat with my neighbours. There is a good balance there between locals and people travelling through the village. The travellers are always welcome as they add variety, and are always very interesting people. “I am nearing the end of my Ph.D. at St. Andrews and I want to travel and work a bit before I settle down, but I know that, when I do decide to settle, it will be in Kingsbarns.” 12.2 Assumptions It is assumed in this scenario that the overall economic state of Scotland develops positively. 12.3 Population Although previously in the 1980s through early in the 21st century there had been a downward trend of the overall Scottish population, and a disproportionate increase in the elderly population, by 2010 the population decline stabilizes. The reasons for this are many, including lower rates of emigration and families having more children. These trends are embodied in a return to “traditional family values”, a flourishing Scottish economy and technological advances, which allow for greater job opportunities, flexibility in those jobs, and greater wealth for the people of Scotland. In addition to Scotland retaining its own citizens due to these economic incentives, many talented and educated foreigners are attracted to the beauty, traditions and quality of life that residing in Scotland can offer. In particular, Kingsbarns benefits from this cultural and economic renaissance, especially after taking proactive measures to ensure the solidarity of their town shortly after exposure to the “Kingsbarns Scenarios” in 2003 by a group of six University of St Andrews students. The residents of Kingsbarns realize early that in order to maintain their current lifestyle, community spirit and town amenities, having a more balanced age, economic and social dispersion in their population is required. Furthermore, after considering the “Your Place, Your Plan – A White Paper on Public Involvement in Planning” and a meeting regarding the future of Kingsbarns in November 2003, more townspeople realize the importance of playing an active role in the future of Kingsbarns. As a result more residents feel empowered and become involved with the direction and planning of future development in the area through the auspices of an Advisory Long-Term Planning Committee. Housing supply, development, population, and demographics are closely interrelated for Kingsbarns. Between 2003 and 2020, the following factors increase local housing supply, population and economic growth: significant multi-million pound commercial investment aimed at revitalising the community in the period 2004 to 2007 through encouraging local industries such as:
12.4 Using Regulation Wisely Rather than allowing the Conservation Act to deter investment in Kingsbarns, the community capitalises on the prestige of being categorised a “Conservation Area” for the purposes of development. The Conservation Act provides that a Conservation Area may apply for grants and loans from the Secretary of State in order to enable it to preserve or enhance the character and appearance of the area. Kingsbarns applies for and obtains grants from the Secretary of State to undertake works necessary in order to maintain the Conservation Area (making it more attractive to investors). Further, since the scope of development opportunities is limited by the operation of the Conservation Act, in order to encourage investment in the community, a scheme is set-up whereby in respect of any investment in Kingsbarns:
By doing so, Kingsbarns mitigates investment issues arising out of the Conservation Act by offsetting its development restrictions with commercial benefit in the form of access to cheaper government funds. 12.5 Housing 0 – 5 years In 2005, the reconstruction of Barns Law from a 4-unit building into a 10-unit complex, is approved by Fife Council as it aids in alleviating the Council housing shortfall. These units have 2–3 bedrooms each and are let preferentially to people who have children so as to assist in maintaining an effective number of children in the school. Also, some students from the University of St Andrews move to the area, as they had done in the past, thus increasing the interface between the two towns, as they are involved with community activities and frequent the local businesses and pub. Students are doubly beneficial, as their friends and families will visit them thereby increasing the use of the town, its facilities and its exposure. As mentioned above the Conservation Act provides that the relevant local authority must approve all demolition and alteration of existing structures, as well as all new development in Kingsbarns. Therefore, all new housing is constructed so as to match the style and beauty of the current houses in Kingsbarns. The emphasis maintaining existing styles is fundamental and reflects an evolutionary line of continuity and community. The commercial investment to Kingsbarns, although initially met with some scepticism by the townspeople results in many changes to the Kingsbarns area. Attracting considerable numbers of day-trippers, this investment economically revitalises the area and, in particular, housing in Kingsbarns. These new businesses create new employment opportunities and population growth as people want to reside near their place of employment. The demographic breakdown of Kingsbarns recalibrates as a relative in-flow of younger people move to the area. This positive economic cycle compounds as the new businesses become better known and the need for affordable, nearby housing for employees more acute. The development of affordable housing, initially not available for second-home ownership, brings many young families and working professionals to Kingsbarns. Since the majority of these are 3-4 bedroom units, these premises are particular attractive to families. 5 – 10 years New housing development Kingsbarns’ profile. As more housing becomes available, Kingsbarns becomes a more affordable option for professors and others working in St Andrews. Legislation is passed giving incentives to first-home buyers, increasing the demand for houses as an investment as well as their full-time residence. Living costs in Scotland are lower than those in England. Although there is an overall increase in outstanding mortgage balances in Scotland, it is still substantially below the rate of England. Fixed rate mortgages, as opposed to variable rate mortgages, become more common throughout the 2010s as interest rates rise after a prolonged period of low interest rates at the turn of the century. In any case, the higher mean income of the village means that these higher rates can still be serviced by residents. The transition to a predominantly fixed-rate approach to home lending also leads to home ownership being less susceptible to changes in the economy such as recession or inflation. Furthermore, the burst of the housing bubble in 2008 leads to more realistic prices for houses, however the change is not as drastic in Scotland as in England, leading many to see housing investment in Scotland as a safer alternative. After this burst in the housing bubble, the cost of houses increases at a slower and safer rate. Through restrictions on the property developed, preventative measures are taken to ensure that affordable housing remains affordable and Fife Council exercises its right to limit the right to buy in areas with high council housing needs until the demand in such areas is satisfied. As a result of taxation changes, second-homes are subject to the equal rates as principal places of residence. Whilst of marginal practical effect it does decrease the amount of interest in holiday houses in the area, bringing housing prices to more affordable levels. This, compounded with the housing bubble burst in 2008 has many second home owners reconsidering the necessity of these investments, leading many to put them up for sale. Furthermore, some second-home owners are reaching retirement age and prefer to live in Kingsbarns full-time because of its beauty and tranquillity. The addition of the Euro in 2011 only marginally changes the housing prices and housing trends, as the UK government will buffer the effects on interest rates by using active fiscal policy. 10 – 20 years Two decades of population growth brings greater diversification to the area and Kingsbarns. The proportion of elderly to younger adults is still within the average lines for Scotland in general. With this in mind, an Advisory Long-Term Planning Committee is created which examines the possibility of Senior / Assisted Housing, so that those residents who have lived in and loved Kingsbarns for many years can remain there. 12.6 Infrastructure Public Transportation The infrastructure linking Kingsbarns to the rest of Scotland does not improve significantly. The demand from Kingsbarns and the neighbouring villages alone is not significant enough to warrant new, major investments. The current infrastructure, including the bus services, is maintained. Physical infrastructure, such as roads, is maintained in its current state with few significant new investments. However, 20 mph speed limits are imposed near the school. This speed limit is enforced and reduces the great speed at which traffic used to travel through the centre of town. An enterprising individual realises the need for a direct link to Leuchars for the inhabitants of Kingsbarns and the other small surrounding villages. A small private direct bus service to Leuchars commences, operating primarily during rush hours. Commuters to major regional urban centres, including telecommuters intermittently going to a central office, as well as the elderly, less mobile people within the community, begin using this service. Private Transportation 0 – 10 years The proportion of people in Kingsbarns who own cars, which was already above the UK and Scottish averages in 2003 , will continue to be higher than average, and indeed will become higher as first-time buyers move to the area. 10 – 20 years The development of new automobile technologies such as Floating Car Data , accident-free and autonomously driven cars will increase the personal mobility of the ageing demographic sector of Kingsbarns. This increased mobility will give the elderly inhabitants of Kingsbarns a greater ability to remain independent and active for longer. The ability to remain active and independent will result in these inhabitants remaining more active in community life as well. The development of new “mobility services” unifies low-costs, public interests, and use of new information and communication technologies. This development further increases the mobility of the population at large. Communications Infrastructure 0 – 10 years Broadband never reaches Kingsbarns, so initially the villagers must rely on dial-up connections. However, communications technology development rapidly provides an affordable substitute for broadband access. The development proves very popular in rural areas such as Kingsbarns. This development in communications infrastructure helps to act as a catalyst for people to begin telecommuting. This in turn increases the appeal of living in a rural community as opposed to an urban area. 10 – 20 years The Internet becomes more versatile and pervasive, as does the virtual infrastructure based on the Internet . The plethora of on-line services that substitute for other services, such as e-banking, e-shopping and e-health, develop significantly, as does the confidence of the general public in using these services as substitutes to the traditional ones. 12.7 Community Services Post Office/Shop The utilization of other forms of communication make the use of conventional mail less common, and the other services the post office provides to Kingsbarns are not lucrative enough to maintain the post office. Also, the trend towards centralizing postal services leads to the closure of the post office within Kingsbarns. The local general store turns the closure of the post office in 2006 into an opportunity by converting resulting surplus space into a small coffee shop. Though the facility is not large, it does provide a casual meeting place for the stores patrons, as well as a place for them to read their morning newspaper. This has the added effect of fostering a greater “community feel” that the touristy shops cannot provide. The shop itself remains a place for the local people to purchase the basic goods they need, such as bread and milk, but also diversifies slightly to include entertainment products, such as a selection of rental movies, catering toward the young professionals who do not want to venture to St Andrews for such products. Public House The public house (pub), Cambo Arms, is also a steakhouse, opening early in 2004, is a common meeting place for the villagers. The owner of the pub has extensive restaurant experience, is well liked in the community and is himself a significant asset to the pub and to the community at large. The steakhouse is unique to the East Fife region and attracts considerable attention. During the week local people tend to eat there as well as socialise, but on the weekends people from nearby towns journey to the pub for its high quality food, service and ambiance. The reputation of the pub increases as well as the desire of many people from nearby St Andrews to avoid the queues at many of the restaurants that are common on the weekend. The combination of good food, a local source for a pint after work, and friendly and enthusiastic staff within the pub make it a favourite location for the “after-work crowd” to relax in. The local pensioners spend some of their time within the pub. This helps to foster a sense of belonging within the community and serves to help combat feelings of isolation that can be prevalent in small communities with few ongoing activities. School The primary school flourishes. The young professionals who have moved to Kingsbarns begin to raise families, providing a steady flow of new pupils to the school. The current headmaster and second teacher maintain the quality of the education at the school. The introduction of new families to Kingsbarns pushes the limits of the facilities of the school slightly, but not so much as to detract from the educational standard. The gym is used as both a classroom and a gym when the number of pupils dictates. Bank The loss of the post office as a place from which to draw money has a negative impact on the citizens of Kingsbarns. The impact is concentrated mostly on the elderly citizens as the more mobile citizens bank primarily in St Andrews. The impact is soon mitigated by the introduction of mobile banking to the small villages throughout Scotland. The major banks send an agent to the village of Kingsbarns at a set time every week, thus allowing pensioners to draw their checks and pay their bills. The model for this type of banking was found in areas such as rural Ireland. Church The church retains its role as a focal point for the community. The attendance remains essentially unchanged, but it is able to attract new attendants and interest in its welfare. The minimal costs to maintain the church in working order mean that it is sustainable, even with attendance remaining the same. Playground The community playground is maintained as the number of local children increase. Because new families enter the village, the demand becomes satisfactory and facilities are thereby updated to make the playground safer and more exciting for the children. The play facilities within the village are also supplemented with the construction of a playing field along the periphery of the village near the new development. This had long been a desired amenity by both parents and the children of the village. As a result the older children have healthy, constructive diversions and are less inclined to take part in unproductive, damaging activities such as vandalism or playing soccer in the town centre. Community Centre The community centre continues to be used by many of the local groups for social events, such as the summer time Strawberry Tea and the Monday Club. As well as being used for social events, more clubs begin to develop within the village as the population grows and becomes more diverse in its interests. The Youth Club is resurrected and is flourishing. 12.8 Tourism In line with the growing popularity among tourists to and within Scotland to visit rural areas and seaside areas, Kingsbarns enter into development of tourism attractions and facilities. One of the developments is the resurrection of small, upscale, bed-and-breakfasts (B&Bs) within the Kingsbarns area. These overnight facilities successfully retain some of the visitors travelling either along the Fife Coastal Road, or specifically to Kingsbarns to visit some of the attractions or events taking place. The B&Bs are indeed consistent with the requirements placed on buildings constructed in a Conservation Area. Furthermore, with their focus on the local community, they stress the local pub as a place for an enjoyable dinner and a drink when staying at the hotel. The B&Bs promote local guided tours for patrons interested in history, heritage, culture and natural beauty. Fife Tourism Kingdom of Fife Tourist Board continues its efforts to stimulate tourism to and within Fife. The projects and activities in which Kingsbarns participates, such as the “Fife Coastal Path”, “Tourist Trails” and “Ancestral Tourism”, successfully draw tourists and day visitors to the village and its surrounding area. Local events and village fairs attract many repeat visitors to Fife. Through initial financial assistance from the area tourist board, Kingsbarns regularly organises events emphasising local produce and historic surroundings (popular with visitors and residents alike). The creation of an independent village brochure about Kingsbarns, emphasising its rich history, yields increased interest among visitors. Golf Tourism As the brand name of the Kingsbarns Links spreads through the world of golf tourism, so does the name of Kingsbarns, the village. Golfers receive information about the village either via the links website or via promotional material distributed by the links. The historic legacy of Kingsbarns holds appeal to golf tourists, who make increasingly use of the town’s facilities and attractions. Short Breaks, Weekend Tourism and Day-Tripping The trend towards more short breaks (rather than one long holiday) persists . Travellers prefer destinations with short travel time and are in search of destinations where they can “get away from it all”, as an antidote to everyday stress. Being just such a place proves a competitive advantage for Kingsbarns. Within 5–15 years, weekend tourism becomes a phenomenon within Scotland, as young urban professionals, as well as affluent “empty-nesters”, seek to escape the frenetic pace of city life. The Fife Coastal Path, Cambo Gardens, local businesses, cafés and restaurants, as well as the cycling trail, draw visitors to the area. Kingsbarns, boasting one of the few pubs and shops around, as well as a favourable location between Crail and St Andrews, becomes a popular rest-stop point. Tourists and day visitors make use of the services in Kingsbarns (predominantly the pub, shop and hotel), providing an injection of capital into the economy of Kingsbarns, and contributing to local employment. 12.9 Phoenix Conclusion This scenario is the Phoenix, a bird reborn of itself. The unfavourable motivations and forces underlying the demand for this report inspire the villagers to take a strongly proactive approach to combating the evident trends when they see the necessity to alter their current course. The ultimate result is an evolved community with enhanced services, facilitated by the increase in population. These services, along with the increased critical mass of the town, furthers the community spirit, especially when coupled with the increased awareness of this spirit as a key objective which is crystallized by the presentation of the scenarios. The type of renovation and development that occurs fosters increasing demographic diversity, which itself furthers the extension of services through new professionals entering the town with disposable income and their children increasing the enrolment of the school. The services help the village to capture more business from the already significant tourist traffic which helps to sustain the. Thus, there is a visible reversal of the decline in industry and economy of the town and the corresponding reductions of services. Through the high level of agency the residents have in determining the future development of Kingsbarns, they are able to create a renaissance of services, economy and above all, a thriving community atmosphere. Future of Kingsbarns - University Report - Part 2 back to Report Contents up to Top 13. Conclusion As a long-term planning tool for Kingsbarns, Scenario Thinking can be used to avoid resignation and perpetuate inertia in the face of an uncertain future. It is not an end in itself, but an aid for re-envisioning the future and the options available that are often considered foregone or overlooked. Leonardo Bruni writes: “It is a fact of human nature that when the way lies open to greatness and honours, people are ready to better themselves; when that way is blocked, they become lifeless and do nothing.” The result of resignation to a future believed to be inevitable is that it can lead people to position themselves in circumstances which become untenable when the inescapable future they imagined does not prove inevitable. There is an equally problematic situation created by a complete lack of confidence in what the future will be. The belief that the future is entirely unknowable and no attempt should be made to understand it, leads to missed opportunity. In the case of Kingsbarns, the visible trend of declining services has been largely met with resigned acceptance because the residents’ awareness of their own agency may have been underestimated. The perceived trend of ageing population and increased absentee land tenure may have conditioned the residents to neglect other trends which provide opportunity. It is the capacity of the villagers to effect a change in the motivations and forces at work in their community that the Scenario Project attempts to clarify, showing that the way to greatness, in Bruni’s words, is not closed. As Keys van der Heijden writes, “strategy in organizations can be effective only if it is shared among people. This means it needs to be articulated, discussed and negotiated.” The Scenario Project is a tool to trigger thinking and disseminate the imperative for change. Scenario Thinking is a means to elucidate options and possibilities, to clarify where an organization stands within its larger context and facilitate the creation of possible routes to success within that context. Our scenarios illustrate Kingsbarns as a community poised at a crossroads with its destination largely in its own hands. Because of the high level of agency the community members possess, the result of the process of “articulation, discussion and negotiation” will largely determine whether the community burgeons or wanes. By influencing the agenda of future discussion, the explicit goal of this project is to foster proactive thinking about the future and ways to cope with the existing external pressures. Virgil asserts, “They are able because they think they are.” This contention is implicit in this report. If the community believes it can grow and thrive (and desires to do so), if its residents share this vision and are willing to oppose the trends that have led to the precarious situation Kingsbarns has found itself in, they can redirect their current course. Pope Urban II once said “if the blind lead the blind, both shall fall into a ditch.” It is the scenario thinking process as a tool for revising conceptions of the current position and the options available that this report seeks to assist – to look on Kingsbarns’ position with new eyes and share this vision with those most closely connected to it. Winston Churchill said on his eightieth birthday: “The nation had the lion’s heart. I had the luck to give it the roar.” Through the clarification of Kingsbarns’ position and resources, it is the objective of this report to aid the mobilization of the residents on a proactive course to achieve the vision they have of their community. Future of Kingsbarns - University Report - Part 2 back to Report Contents up to Top 14. Limitations Operating within a five-week timeframe, 14 October to 21 November 2003, extensive research and interviews with key stakeholders were conducted, aiming to capture various aspects of village life. Additionally, through participation in the town meeting on 10 November 2003, the sentiments of a broader cross-section of the town were gauged, though informally. Nonetheless, this report is bounded by certain constraints which limit the scope and dimensions of the Project and the research that went into it. Time was the largest constraint; research started on 14 October 2003 and was primarily completed by 1 November 2003. This included nearly all research, and all but one of the interviews were completed by 1 November 2003. This restricted the scope of our research to readily available materials. The results of a significant due diligence process conducted by investors in the Golf Links on the Kingsbarns were unavailable to us and consequently, are not incorporated into this Report. Further, there is a lack of data available which is specific to Kingsbarns. In many cases we have had to base our information on trends in Fife or Scotland and incorporate the villagers’ perceptions where relevant in this analysis. The interview process represents a cross-section of the village. While it is a broad and representative cross-section of several key aspects of village life, the views of the key stakeholders we interviewed do not necessarily represent the sentiments of the entire village. Survey work in Kingsbarns aimed at clarifying the residents’ positions on development could add a significant dimension. Interviews with the Fife Council planning committee could also prove invaluable. While Fife Council’s current development plan is detailed in the Rural Housing Strategy , and known by the Fife Council Representative for Kingsbarns who was interviewed, a discussion on the future policies of the regional planners could have significant impact on future development. The emergence of plans for internal investment, revealed near the end of the scenario building process, limited the degree to which they could be incorporated into our process. back to Report Contents up to Top |