Executive Summary

Kingsbarns is at a turning point in its development. Like many other rural villages, Kingsbarns has seen a decline in its traditional industries over the past fifty years. Furthermore, the community has experienced a gradual decline in its population, and the remaining citizens are growing older. The community has, however, expressed concern that it may lose its local businesses, amenities and services and fail to attract new residents (in particular young families). Essentially, Kingsbarns is concerned that the unique, historic community will fade away.

After extensive information gathering and analysis (the results of which are contained in the workbook appearing as an appendix), this report highlights the underlying driving forces and influences affecting Kingsbarns. From this, the identified Scenario Thinking objective for the Kingsbarns project is to initiate conversation about the factors necessitating change.

The report outlines the general objectives of using Scenario Thinking as a strategic planning tool, highlighting the potential benefits and disadvantages involved in applying the technique. Further, an extensive methodology (incorporating a literary review) discusses the many components and concerns involved in a Scenario Thinking process.

Using a clearly defined scenario planning methodology, the report poses two scenarios for the community, “Quicksand” and “Phoenix”. In the “Quicksand” scenario, the lack of development and initiative contributes to a further decline in population and local services, with Kingsbarns’ image gradually imitating that of a ghost town. In the “Phoenix” scenario, negative trends are successfully reversed by local rejuvenation and development, with Kingsbarns sustaining its position as a thriving community where people live, work and interact.

The report illustrates the evolutionary paths and interrelationships between the two scenarios, thus providing a basis for Kingsbarns to address the forces identified initially and take the opportunities arising from them. Ultimately, the scenarios aim to assist in the understanding of a wide range of issues the community faces today, as well as into the future.

CONTENTS - click on links to go to relevant section

1. Disclaimer

2. Acknowledgements

3. Kingsbarns Scenario Thinking Team

4. Executive Summary

5. Introduction

   5.1 Objective
   5.2 The Problem
   5.3 Scope of the Project
   5.4 Kingsbarns in 2020

6. Literature Review

7. Scenario Thinking

   7.1 Introduction to Scenario Thinking
   7.2 The Benefits of Scenario Thinking
   7.3 The Drawbacks of Scenario Thinking

8. Kingsbarns Scenario Methodology

   8.1 Project Commissioning
   8.2 Framework
   8.3 St Andrews Approach
   8.4 Scenario Building
   8.5 Segmentation and Competitive Analysis
   8.6 Bias Elimination
   8.7 Strategy Evaluation
   8.8 Strategy Design

9. Data

10. Analysis

   10.1 Introduction
   10.2 The Matrix
   10.3 Identification of Key Drivers
   10.4 Explanation of Key Drivers

11. Scenario One – Quicksand

   11.1 Kingsbarns in 2020 – Quicksand
   11.2 Assumptions
   11.3 Population
   11.4 Regulatory Impediment to Development
   11.5 Housing
   11.6 Infrastructure
   11.7 Community Services
   11.8 Tourism
   11.9 Quicksand Conclusion

12. Scenario Two – Phoenix

   12.1 Phoenix Scenario
   12.2 Assumptions
   12.3 Population
   12.4 Using Regulation Wisely
   12.5 Housing
   12.6 Infrastructure
   12.7 Community Services
   12.8 Tourism
   12.9 Phoenix Conclusion

13. Conclusion

14. Limitations

15. Bibliography

16. Table of Statute

17. Appendix

Most of the report has been reproduced on this site - in two parts

Part 1 (sections 1-9)   Part 2 (sections 10-14)

Figures, bibliography, table of statute and appendicies have not been included.

The complete report is available from Peter Erskine.